ON SHAKY GROUND

People from abroad, well aware of Japan’s reputation for being a seismic hotspot, often ask me if I’m not afraid of earthquakes.

The reality? If you choose to live here, it just comes with the territory (pun absolutely intended).

Honestly, we don’t think about it much. Only when the earth decides to do a little dance - which, let’s be real, happens quite frequently. So if you put it that way, we probably do think about it quite often…

Case in point: Just the other day, a 7.1 magnitude tremor in southern Japan was followed almost exactly 24 hours later by a 5.3 jolt in the east (right under our feet in Kanagawa, where we live). And guess what? Scientists say the two weren’t even connected.

So yes, we quite literally live on shaky ground.

If you ask me, whoever designed the earth’s crust didn’t quite think it through. I mean, there are serious design flaws here. Otherwise, tectonic plates wouldn’t keep rubbing against each other, building up pressure that then gets released, giving the country a good shake-up every now and then.

Switzerland, on the other hand, seems like a much safer place to live in this regard. But don’t be fooled; it’s not a stranger to earth tremors either. There are some respectable fault lines running underneath it. Granted, quakes are far less frequent and lower in intensity than the ‘run-of-the-mill’ temblors in Japan. With exceptions, that is:

In 1356, a quake estimated to have a magnitude between 6.0 and 7.1 shook the northwestern region of Switzerland and destroyed the city of Basel. It is also the reason why the Basel Minster only sports two towers today, compared to the original five, as they never bothered to rebuild the others after they had tumbled down.

Where Japan really shines is in its preparedness. Over the last century, building codes have consistently been tightened and building techniques improved to the point where even major quakes are unlikely to topple buildings, unless they are old enough to remember samurais roaming the streets.

But the shaking of the earth is just part of the story. The far greater danger actually comes from tsunamis - a problem that a landlocked country like Switzerland can blissfully ignore.

So, the irony is that buildings might survive an earthquake, only to be flattened by the tsunami that follows. As was seen in the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.

To tackle this, Japan has developed elaborate warning systems to get residents out of harm’s way as quickly as possible. And annual drills are being conducted to keep everyone on their toes, literally.

Then there is the 'Early Warning System', a relatively recent tool that sends alerts to mobile phones of users in affected areas, once a certain quake strength is detected. The term ‘early’ is a bit of a stretch, though. We’re talking seconds, not hours or days. Sometimes, the alarm goes off after the quake has already started, making the alert often scarier than the quake itself.

Following the 2011 quake, we got a bonus round of aftershocks - over a thousand of them, just to keep things interesting for weeks or even months.

That was in the pre-'Home Office' era, so everyone was glued to their desks in the office, with their trusty mobile phones by their sides. Ever so often, the entire office would erupt into a cacophony of earthquake alerts, causing people to leap from their seats, the blaring sounds jolting them out of their work-induced trances, leaving them to wonder if it was a belated warning for an aftershock that had already passed, or a heads-up for another one on the way.

And just to keep the party going, Building Management would then chime in with their own noisy loudspeaker announcements, reminding us to stay calm, avoid the lifts, and reassuring us that the building was as solid as rock.

Since the megaquake in 2011, Japan has experienced more than 30 major earthquakes measuring lower 6 or higher on the country’s seismic intensity scale (which can reach up to a maximum of 7). This is used exclusively in Japan and seen as a better indicator than the global Richter scale, as it not only considers the strength, but also the depth in which a quake occurs.

So I'm pretty used to the ground doing the tango beneath my feet or our house shaking like it has entered the Olympic breakdancing competition.

What is new this time is the Meteorological Agency’s warning this week about an ‘increased risk of a major earthquake’, right after the tremor in southern Japan on Thursday.

On the face of it, the Thursday quake with a magnitude 7.1 was not a big deal. It caused minimal damage (which is pretty remarkable in itself!), and the tsunami warning was quickly downgraded. Basically, it was an event that wouldn’t even make people blink.

Except that it was swiftly followed by this official advisory - one that had never been given before, and which prompted the Prime Minister to cancel a planned trip to a summit in Central Asia, to be in the country for the next week.

Thoughts immediately turned to the ‘big one’ - that once-in-a-century quake that’s supposedly overdue to hit the country within the next 30 years with a probability of 70% to 80%.

So, is this it? Should we start browsing for a private helicopter on Amazon to whisk us away the moment disaster strikes?

The funny thing is, predicting earthquakes is like trying to guess the winning lottery numbers – impossible! Saying there’s a high risk of a megaquake within the next 30 years based on historical frequency is one thing. Predicting the so-called ‘big one’ for next week is quite another. I mean, the Weather Agency is not exactly known for nailing weather forecasts beyond the next 7 days (or even the next day). So how on earth would they know about an impending quake?

Also, I have always wondered why the Meteorological Agency is in charge of earthquake monitoring in the first place. Given the prominence of quakes in this country, they surely deserve their own dedicated agency, don’t you think?

Anyway, the warning, of course, hasn’t gone unnoticed - despite the fact that a lot of people are busy preparing for their annual summer holidays next week. The demand for emergency supplies like drinking water, emergency toilets and preserved foods has instantly spiked, and some items have already sold out, prompting the Government to politely ask everyone to chill out and stop hoarding disaster kits. Perhaps they should have coordinated their communication strategy with the Weather Agency first…

In the meantime, live goes on as usual - or as much as the current heat wave allows.